Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tre Fiori 2-3 Virtus
Original prediction
Tre Fiori
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 37.9% | 45.6% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.2% | 26.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 33.9% | 27.8% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Tre FioriWWWWL
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
VirtusWWWDW
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 1.40/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Tre FioriVirtus
100.0Attack33.3
77.8Defence100.0
100.0Form77.8
93.5Power72.8
1.72xG0.98