Tre Fiorivs
Pennarossa
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 8/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Tre Fiori 5-2 Pennarossa
Original prediction
Tre Fiori
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.1% | 86.6% | 15.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.10 | 17.8% | 9.2% | -8.6 pts |
| Away | 8.13 | 11.2% | 4.2% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.5 pts
Projected Score
Tre Fiori 3–0 Pennarossa
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
86.6%
Model confidence
86.6%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Tre FioriLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PennarossaLDDWW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Tre FioriPennarossa
59.4Attack20.0
66.7Defence0.0
60.4Form8.9
62.4Power14.0
3.62xG0.44