Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Tre Fiori are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Folgore are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Folgore hold an 18.3-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 60.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.2% in the Coppa Titano, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80