Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Tre Fiori are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Faetano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Faetano hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (41.9 v 48.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.8% in the Coppa Titano, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 16 · avg 2.20/3.20