Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tre Fiori 3-0 Domagnano
Original prediction
Tre Fiori
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.1% | 43.5% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.4% | 26.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.64 | 19.5% | 30.4% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Tre FioriWWWLL
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
DomagnanoWWWLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Tre FioriDomagnano
100.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
90.7Power92.8
1.63xG1.44