Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wigan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tranmere are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Wigan are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Wigan hold a 38.2-point power-rating edge (29.5 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Wigan holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wigan
Probability
54.5%
Model confidence
54.5%
Wigan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00