Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SalPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
TPV are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while SalPa are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and SalPa hold a 12.4-point power-rating edge (41.1 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.3% in the Ykkönen, while SalPa holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
SalPa
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
8.3%
SalPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 13 · avg 2.80/2.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20