Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
TPV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
TPV 4-0 KPV-j
Original prediction
TPV
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 13:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.6% | 55.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.6% | 22.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.17 | 21.8% | 22.2% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
TPV
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
TPV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TPVLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KPV-jLWLLL
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TPVKPV-j
46.7Attack36.0
36.0Defence0.0
36.0Form24.0
41.4Power23.4
2.79xG1.23