Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC jazz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
TPV 1-3 FC jazz
Original prediction
FC jazz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.5% | 30.0% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.0% | 22.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 42.5% | 47.5% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
FC jazz
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
FC jazz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TPVLWLWD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC jazzLWWDW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
TPVFC jazz
47.2Attack48.6
37.5Defence56.9
37.5Form50.0
42.4Power52.5
1.30xG1.75