Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Toulouse are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Liverpool are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Liverpool hold a 22.3-point power-rating edge (49.8 v 72.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.1% in the UEFA Europa League, while Liverpool holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60