Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toulouse 0-1 Lille
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.89 | 24.5% | 28.6% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 27.2% | 26.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 48.4% | 44.5% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ToulouseDLLWD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LilleDWDDW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ToulouseLille
33.3Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
16.7Form66.7
31.3Power68.0
1.22xG1.71