Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toulouse · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre
Original prediction
Toulouse
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 55.7% | 40.8% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 24.1% | 27.2% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 20.2% | 31.9% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Toulouse
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Toulouse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ToulouseDLDLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Le HavreDLDLW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ToulouseLe Havre
33.3Attack16.7
41.7Defence66.7
16.7Form16.7
33.8Power36.5
1.16xG1.16