Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toulouse · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Toulouse are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lask Linz are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Toulouse hold a 12.2-point power-rating edge (49.8 v 37.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Toulouse holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toulouse
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Toulouse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20