Toulousevs
Estac Troyes
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/25/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toulouse · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toulouse 0-0 Estac Troyes
Original prediction
Toulouse
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 62.5% | 66.6% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 21.5% | 18.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 5.97 | 15.9% | 14.7% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Toulouse
Probability
66.6%
Model confidence
66.6%
Toulouse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20