Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Toulouse are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Benfica are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 19.7-point power-rating edge (49.8 v 69.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00