Torrijosvs
Villacañas
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villacañas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Torrijos 0-3 Villacañas
Original prediction
Villacañas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.3% | 34.2% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.83 | 31.8% | 28.0% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 31.9% | 37.8% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Villacañas
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Villacañas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00