First LeagueFirst League
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:12
Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva

Home
W
11
Full time
Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Away
D
Arena Khimki
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Torpedo Moskva(44%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Torpedo Moskva
44%
Draw
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
28%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Torpedo Moskva
94
Shinnik Yaroslavl
34
Defence
Torpedo Moskva
91
Shinnik Yaroslavl
66
Momentum
Torpedo Moskva
100
Shinnik Yaroslavl
33
Danger (xG)
Torpedo Moskva
2.70
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Torpedo Moskva)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Torpedo Moskva)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Shinnik Yaroslavl)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva
WWWWD
Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl
DDD

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Torpedo Moskva44%
Draw28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl28%

Torpedo Moskva leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Torpedo Moskva head into this in First League fixture at Arena Khimki in mixed form (W), while Shinnik Yaroslavl arrive in mixed form (D). Torpedo Moskva have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Shinnik Yaroslavl over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Torpedo Moskva's elite attack (94/100) faces a solid Shinnik Yaroslavl defence (66/100), while Shinnik Yaroslavl's attack is up against a watertight Torpedo Moskva backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Torpedo Moskva's favour.

Torpedo Moskva have won all 2 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Shinnik Yaroslavl have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Torpedo Moskva to win with 44% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Torpedo Moskva 4426%, Draw 2760%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 2814%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Torpedo Moskva 0Draws 10 Shinnik Yaroslavl
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
11 May 2026
Torpedo Moskva
D11
Shinnik Yaroslavl

Recent form

Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva

W
@ Ural
13 Jul 2026
10
W
@ FC Sochi
3 Jul 2026
30
W
vs Volga Ulyanovsk
22 Jun 2026
10
W
vs Enisey
16 May 2026
10
D
@ Shinnik Yaroslavl
11 May 2026
11
Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl

D
@ CSKA Moscow
30 Jun 2026
11
D
@ Chelyabinsk
16 May 2026
22
D
vs Torpedo Moskva
11 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

GoalVio's model predicts Torpedo Moskva to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torpedo Moskva vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more