Toronto FCvs
Orlando City SC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/14/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toronto FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SC
Original prediction
Toronto FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 40.8% | 39.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.9% | 26.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 34.4% | 33.8% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Toronto FC
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Toronto FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40