Toronto FCvs
CF Montreal
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toronto FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toronto FC 2-1 CF Montreal
Original prediction
Toronto FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 48.7% | 43.3% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.8% | 27.2% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 26.6% | 29.5% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Toronto FC
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Toronto FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40