Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Torino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Torino 3-2 Monza
Original prediction
Torino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 44.9% | 49.4% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.7% | 23.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 27.4% | 27.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Torino
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Torino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TorinoWWDLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MonzaWLDLW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TorinoMonza
47.6Attack61.9
57.1Defence28.6
47.6Form33.3
52.1Power41.7
2.02xG1.34