Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tondela 1-0 Torreense
Original prediction
Tondela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.0% | 44.8% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 28.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.4% | 26.9% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TondelaWWWLL
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TorreenseWDWLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TondelaTorreense
38.9Attack38.9
66.7Defence50.0
50.0Form33.3
52.5Power42.6
1.31xG0.83