Tondelavs
FC Porto B
COMPLETEDPortugal · Segunda Liga · 9/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tondela 3-0 FC Porto B
Original prediction
Tondela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.3% | 48.1% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.3% | 24.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.75 | 19.4% | 27.2% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TondelaLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC Porto BLWLLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TondelaFC Porto B
45.1Attack50.0
57.8Defence50.0
48.0Form43.1
52.3Power48.3
1.46xG1.14