Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tondela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tondela 2-0 Alverca
Original prediction
Tondela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.13 | 29.2% | 41.2% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.1% | 27.2% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.7% | 31.7% | -10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Tondela
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Tondela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TondelaWWWWL
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AlvercaWWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TondelaAlverca
100.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power50.0
2.10xG1.28