Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uljanik · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tomislav 4-0 Uljanik
Original prediction
Uljanik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.39 | 14.1% | 35.5% | 21.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 19.6% | 24.7% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 66.3% | 39.8% | -26.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Uljanik
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Uljanik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TomislavLLWLD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
UljanikWDLDW
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TomislavUljanik
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power40.7
2.15xG1.56