Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tombense · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Tombense are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Porto BA are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WLW), averaging 1.67 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Tombense hold a 22.0-point power-rating edge (56.8 v 34.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 20.6% in the Serie D, while Tombense holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tombense
Probability
69.9%
Model confidence
20.6%
Tombense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.67/3.00