Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Tombense are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Ituano are 1W-3D-0L in their last 4 (WDDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Ituano hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (42.4 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the Serie B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.50