Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca W 6-0 Tijuana W
Original prediction
Toluca W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 62.4% | 55.5% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.4% | 21.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.23 | 17.3% | 23.4% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Toluca WLWWDW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Tijuana WWLLWL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Toluca WTijuana W
61.1Attack61.1
55.6Defence38.9
72.2Form33.3
63.6Power43.9
2.37xG1.45