Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Toluca W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Necaxa W are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca W hold a 68.2-point power-rating edge (94.8 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.1% in the Liga MX Femenil, while Toluca W holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
62.1%
Model confidence
62.1%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00