Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca W 1-0 León W
Original prediction
Toluca W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.4% | 55.1% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.63 | 19.5% | 21.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 5.60 | 16.1% | 23.1% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Toluca WWDWWL
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
León WWLLWL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Toluca WLeón W
75.0Attack75.0
75.0Defence41.7
83.3Form50.0
78.6Power55.9
2.44xG1.43