Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Toluca W are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.60 conceded, while León W are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 2.80 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca W hold a 35.5-point power-rating edge (94.8 v 59.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.1% in the Liga MX Femenil, while Toluca W holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
9.1%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 13 · avg 2.40/2.60
GF 14 · GA 14 · avg 2.80/2.80