Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Toluca W are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while León W are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca W hold a 35.5-point power-rating edge (94.8 v 59.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.6% in the Liga MX Femenil, while Toluca W holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60