Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Toluca W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while América W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca W hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (94.8 v 91.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.7% in the Liga MX Femenil, while Toluca W holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca W
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Toluca W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40