Tolucavs
Santos Laguna
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Toluca 2-0 Santos Laguna, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 2-3 Santos Laguna
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 75.6% | 78.6% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.29 | 14.8% | 13.7% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 9.76 | 9.5% | 7.6% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.0 pts
Projected Score
Toluca 2–0 Santos Laguna
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
78.6%
Model confidence
78.6%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Santos LagunaWLDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TolucaSantos Laguna
75.0Attack25.0
75.0Defence45.8
79.2Form16.7
76.2Power32.3
2.71xG0.47