Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 2-0 Monterrey
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 45.0% | 49.1% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.5% | 24.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 28.6% | 26.1% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaWWWWD
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
MonterreyDLWLW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TolucaMonterrey
66.7Attack60.0
86.7Defence53.3
80.0Form66.7
77.6Power63.4
1.91xG1.14