Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 2-0 Leon
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.7% | 41.2% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 22.1% | 32.8% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaWWWDW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeonDWWWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TolucaLeon
66.7Attack75.0
83.3Defence75.0
75.0Form100.0
74.5Power85.8
1.46xG1.43