Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 72.9% | 67.9% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.76 | 16.2% | 18.6% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 8.60 | 10.9% | 13.6% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
67.9%
Model confidence
67.9%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaWWDWL
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC JuarezLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TolucaFC Juarez
53.3Attack20.0
73.3Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
66.0Power11.5
2.45xG0.68