Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
11%
MediumconfidenceToluca are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while FC Juarez are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Toluca hold a 51.7-point power-rating edge (67.2 v 15.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely result in the Liga MX, favouring Toluca with 11.2% confidence, a 54% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
67.5%
Model confidence
11.2%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaLWWLW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC JuarezWWLLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TolucaFC Juarez
66.7Attack11.1
66.7Defence22.2
66.7Form0.0
67.2Power15.5
2.31xG0.89