Tolucavs
Club Tijuana
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 2-2 Club Tijuana
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 73.2% | 63.6% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.79 | 16.1% | 18.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 8.69 | 10.7% | 17.5% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
63.6%
Model confidence
63.6%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaDLLDL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Club TijuanaDDLDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TolucaClub Tijuana
72.2Attack45.5
55.6Defence57.6
58.3Form48.5
62.1Power52.4
2.03xG1.08