Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Toluca are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Austin are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Austin hold an 8.1-point power-rating edge (69.4 v 77.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.9% in the Leagues Cup, while Toluca holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00