Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 2-0 Austin
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 57.0% | 43.5% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 24.6% | 26.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 5.07 | 18.4% | 30.3% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaWDWLW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AustinDWLDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TolucaAustin
66.7Attack66.7
77.8Defence88.9
66.7Form77.8
69.4Power77.5
1.52xG1.36