Tolucavs
Atletico San Luis
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 1-1 Atletico San Luis
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 70.4% | 75.6% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 17.4% | 13.9% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 7.57 | 12.3% | 10.6% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
75.6%
Model confidence
75.6%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaLLDLW
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Atletico San LuisLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TolucaAtletico San Luis
75.8Attack45.5
54.5Defence39.4
60.6Form36.4
63.6Power42.4
3.15xG1.07