Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca 5-2 Atlas
Original prediction
Toluca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 64.4% | 56.8% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 21.4% | 23.3% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 6.54 | 14.2% | 19.9% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Toluca
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Toluca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TolucaWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AtlasDLWWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TolucaAtlas
66.7Attack47.6
77.8Defence57.1
72.2Form61.9
71.8Power58.0
1.77xG0.90