Toluca U21vs
Santos Laguna U21
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX U21 · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toluca U21 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Toluca U21 1-0 Santos Laguna U21, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Toluca U21 2-1 Santos Laguna U21
Original prediction
Toluca U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 02:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 61.5% | 58.7% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 21.7% | 25.5% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 5.34 | 16.8% | 15.8% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Projected Score
Toluca U21 1–0 Santos Laguna U21
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Toluca U21
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
58.7%
Toluca U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40