Toledovs
Huracán Balazote
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Toledo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Toledo 3-1 Huracán Balazote
Original prediction
Toledo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 76.6% | 52.2% | -24.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.33 | 17.0% | 23.9% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 14.31 | 6.3% | 23.9% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Toledo
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Toledo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/4.00