Tokyo Verdyvs
Avispa Fukuoka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/24/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avispa Fukuoka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tokyo Verdy 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka
Original prediction
Avispa Fukuoka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 30.1% | 28.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.3% | 28.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.6% | 44.0% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Avispa Fukuoka
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Avispa Fukuoka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80