Tokushima Vortisvs
Tochigi City
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tochigi City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tokushima Vortis 3-0 Tochigi City
Original prediction
Tochigi City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.9% | 32.4% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.4% | 29.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.7% | 38.0% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Tochigi City
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Tochigi City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20