Étoile Carougevs
FC Winterthur
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · Challenge League · 9/11/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Winterthur · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Étoile Carouge 0-1 FC Winterthur
Original prediction
FC Winterthur
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.8% | 27.1% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.3% | 25.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.9% | 47.1% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
FC Winterthur
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
FC Winterthur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80