Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Togo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Togo 1-0 Burundi
Original prediction
Togo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 58.1% | 40.1% | -18.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.4% | 29.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.87 | 15.5% | 30.7% | 15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Togo
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Togo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TogoWDWDD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BurundiLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
TogoBurundi
25.0Attack16.7
50.0Defence66.7
16.7Form16.7
33.8Power36.5
1.01xG1.06