Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 40.4-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40