Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tlaxcala are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 40.4-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.6% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20