Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Tlaxcala are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Monarcas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60