Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Tlaxcala are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Monarcas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40