Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Tlaxcala are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 51.0-point power-rating edge (18.3 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40